Recovery in sight: Perspectives from 21 consultancies on the 2022/23 sugarcane harvest.

The sugarcane cycle in the Center-South of Brazil that is coming to an end was marked by production declines as evidenced by the lowest crushing in ten harvests. Now, with about two months to go until the official start of the 2022/23 season, eyes are on the new crop and recovery projections.

NovaCana — 07 Feb 2022 – 15:20 In September 2020, consultancies and specialized companies consulted by NovaCana were already giving their opinion on the season that would start in a semester. At that time, the views for the current crop were so negative that analysts feared the impacts for the 2022/23 cycle, mainly those resulting from the drought and frosts. But, as always, the end-of-year and off-season rains would still be decisive for the results.

Now, the indications given by the climate are of recovery, after all, the rains are coming. Even though experts still consider it too early to say major rebounds, the prognosis seems to be positive.

Sugarcane production is expected to be far from the more than 600 million tons recorded in 2020/21, but it should also be slightly higher than the more than 520 million tons seen in 2021/22. evolution estimate 270122 This first estimate collected by NovaCana for the 2022/23 harvest included figures from 21 specialized, sugar-energy and consulting companies.

In the average of the survey, the crushing of 2022/23 is forecast at 554.1 million tons. The volume would be 6.2% higher than the 521.67 million tons registered in the previous cycle. If it reaches this result, it would be, with the exception of 2021/22, the smallest harvest since the 532.76 million tons in 2012/13.

Of the 20 companies that made this data available to NovaCana, the highest crushing expectation is from BP Bunge, with 570 million tons. The lower volumes forecast come from Rabobank, Canaplan and Czarnikow, with 540 million tonnes crushed in 2022/23 – even so, the amount is higher than the closing of the previous cycle.

Source to continue reading: NovaCana

Share our content: